【12月05日】阎洪:Water Allocation: Modelling and Simulation for Minjiang River Basin of China under Changing Climatic Conditions

讲座名称: 
Water Allocation: Modelling and Simulation for Minjiang River Basin of China under Changing Climatic Conditions
主讲人: 
阎洪
时间: 
2014-12-05 14:30 to 16:00
地点: 
东明校区202教室
讲座摘要: 

The significant stress on development caused by unsustainable water resource allocation has been a perplexing problem for the Dujiangyan Administration Bureau of the Minjiang River Basin, at the upper Yangtze River in China. To tackle these regional water resources allocation issues at Sancha Lake, at the lower-right basin of the Dujiangyan Irrigation System, the local authority was seeking an optimal allocation strategy to ensure equitable and efficient water use for its subareas, from which the subareas would be able to provide reasonable reaction strategies. The authority dominates the water transactions between the subareas involved in water rights distribution, which shows a Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium, with the subareas playing a Cournot-Nash game to develop optimum strategies. Using a multi-objective multi-stage decision making process with an uncertain stream inflow, a multi-objective multi-stage Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot (m2SNC) game is modeled as a bi-level equilibrium optimization incorporating fuzzy random coefficients. An interactive-dynamic-programming-based genetic algorithm (IDP-GA) is designed to simulate the policies needed for the optimum allocation of water resources under various climatic scenarios. Specifically, a complete operational mechanism for the Sancha Lake area is presented to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the bi-level equilibrium model and the policy simulation procedure: (1) The bi-level equilibrium model, integrating the Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium and the Cournot-Nash equilibrium, is an efficient tool to determine optimal water resource allocation strategies. (2) Similar to the principles of an input-output system and the computable general equilibrium, the policy simulation system with an IDP-GA, an extension of principle of CGE, inputs scenario data and outputs an early-warning mechanism to inform the policy suggestions. (3) An emergency response cooperative mechanism based on allocation modes dominated by an authority is a relatively equitable and efficient method for developing countries which need to cope with uncertain situations under changing climatic conditions.

主讲人简介: 

阎洪教授于1982年毕业于四川大学数学系。84年赴日留学,获日本电气通信大学信息管理硕士。87年进入美国卡内基梅隆大学工商管理学院,获工商管理硕士及博士学位。毕业后曾在该校的工程设计研究中心作博士后研究。

93年底来港后,作为美国波士顿顾问公司的管理顾问,参加过多个跨国公司在东亚地区,特别是在中国大陆的市场策划,发展战略研究,以及公司营运分析。95年进入香港理工大学管理学系工作。现在为该校物流及航运学系教授,及该系教务委员会主席。现任中国国家自然科学基金专家评审委员会委员,四川大学工商管理学院客座教授、博士生导师,西南交通大学经济管理学院院长顾问及客座教授、博士生导师,大连理工大学管理学院客座教授、博士生导师,西南财经大学客座教授,广东外语外贸大学客座教授,银杏国际旅游管理学院客座教授。

他的研究及教学工作包括物流管理,航运及港口管理,供应链管理,营运管理,数学规划及数据包络分析。研究范围既包括理论研究也包括实际应用研究。出版过四本学术著作,并在国际多个学术期刊上发表过百余篇学术论文。另外,他还参与了一些大陆及香港大型企业的管理研究项目,包括中国移动的大区仓库物流系统,中国移动呼叫中心研究,中国联通物资库存,胜利油田的物资管理战略,香港嘉里物流公司的物流服务,香港珠江船务有限公司的航线策划,等等。并参与联合国粮食开发组织的项目。另外,经常受邀对学界,工业界及政府相关人员进行学术讲演。

阎洪教授积极投身社会服务,现任居港大陆海外学人联合会会长,四川通发电信股份有限公司独立董事,香港中国商会参事,四川大学香港校友会会长,香港佛教产业文化协会副主席,香港中国高等学校联合会物流委员会副主席。