Time: 7月24日13:30-15:35/13:30-15:35, July 24th
Tencent Meeting ID: https://meeting.tencent.com/s/iY5bpyGGT7p9 (ID: 430 571 650)
Chair: Prof. Ying’En Ge
Organizer:
(a) College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University (SMU), and
(b) Waterborne Transport Division, World Transport Convention (WTC)
Languages: Mandarin
Schedule：
13:30-13:35 | Welcome message from the Chair |
13:35-14:05 | China-Europe transportation route competition under Belt and Road initiative By Dr. Qing Liu, University of Hamburg, Germany |
14:05-14:35 | Contagion risk between the shipping freight and stock markets by Dr. Wenming (Wendy) Shi, University of Tasmania, Australia |
14:35-15:05 | 基于CNN深度学习的区域船舶碰撞风险分类方法研究 南京理工大学张伟斌教授 |
15:05-15:35 | Risk Management of Arctic Shipping from a perspective of accident analysis by Dr. Shanshan Fu, Shanghai Maritime University, China |
Appendix: Information on Presentation
Presentation 1:
SPEAKER：Dr. Qing Liu, University of Hamburg
TITLE：China-Europe transportation route competition under Belt and Road initiative
ABSTRACT:
We analyzed the overall shippers’ preferences over the major container transport networks connecting China to Europe, especially under the impact of Belt and Road initiative (BRI). Three main container corridors are all compared, i.e. the New Eurasia Land Bridge, the sea-based Silk Maritime Road, and also the traditional Northern Europe route, connecting 31 representing origins in China and 81 representing destinations in the EU, with 17 origin terminals and 21 gateway terminals included. This is necessary to provide an overall picture of the impacts of BRI on container transportation network, while existing research on BRI is limited to only part of it, or only one or a few pairs of destination-origin. Furthermore, four commodity types are compared to incorporate the heterogenous characters of shippers’ preferences.
A route choice model is developed to estimated shippers’ choice patterns of shipment routes including mode, terminal and inland transport. Three plausible development scenarios were developed to project major trends and potential development that might change the BRI transport network. Analytical results describe shipper’s choice patterns and port competition regarding their hinterland coverage and overlapping intensities in the new BRI circumstance. In the end, based on the analysis, we offer development strategies for policy-makers in developing BRI project and for Southern Europe Ports to seize opportunities to increase their competitiveness and maintain their advantages.
BIOGRAPHY:
Dr. Qing Liu is the Junior Professor of Maritime Economics and director of the Maritime Economics Research Center, at the University of Hamburg, Germany. She has also worked as the Director of Transportation Economics/Transportation Economist at Nick J. Rahall Transportation Institute in the USA for two years, and before that a Research Assistant at the Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute in the USA. Dr. Liu is currently serving on the Europe Board of Directors for the Chinese Oversees Transportation Association (COTA), and she used to work on the Standing Committee on Transportation and Economics Development (ADD10) for the U.S. Transportation Research Board (TRB) for two years. After working on various topics of transportation and logistics in the early years, she is now focusing on Maritime Economics and Global Logistics. In addition to academic research, she has multiple years of experience working with US/Germany state and local agencies, as well as private companies.
Presentation 2:
SPEAKER：Dr. Wenming (Wendy) Shi, University of Tasmania
TITLE：Contagion risk between the shipping freight and stock markets
ABSTRACT:
This paper employs the tri-variate Markov regime-switching (MRS) copula model to investigate the dynamic dependence between the shipping freight and stock markets. Stronger contemporaneous and bidirectional lead-lag relationships are detected in the contagion regime, which, however, are weaker in the normal regime. Compared with the Chinese stock market, the US stock market can affect and be affected by the shipping freight market in a more sensitive manner. The results have important implications for market prediction and risk management.
This full paper can be downloaded via: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2020.101900
BIOGRAPHY:
Wenming (Wendy) Shi
https://www.utas.edu.au/profiles/staff/amc/wenming-shi
Dr. Wenming (Wendy) Shi is a Lecturer in the Department of Maritime and Logistics Management, Australian Maritime College, University of Tasmania. She received her PhD degree in Industry Economics in 2013 from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China. Her main research interests include transport economics, tourism economics, shipping finance, and maritime risk management.
Presentation 3:
SPEAKER：张伟斌教授, 南京理工大学
TITLE：基于CNN深度学习的区域船舶碰撞风险分类方法研究
ABSTRACT:
航行风险估计对于船舶的海上和水道作业非常重要。本研究提出了一种基于卷积神经网络（CNN）和图像识别的新方法，对一个区域中船舶相遇场景中的碰撞风险进行解释和分类。该方法应用基于CNN的模型，快速准确地对基于AIS数据所构建的有关碰撞风险的图像进行识别和分类。这项工作的主要发现是基于CNN的方法可以满足船舶碰撞风险识别的设计要求，表明该方向值得进行深入的研究。
BIOGRAPHY:
张伟斌博士现为南京理工大学电子工程与光电技术学院教授、江苏省智能交通信息感知与数据分析工程实验室副主任；曾在芬兰阿尔托大学、美国华盛顿大学STAR Lab做博士后研究；他的主要研究兴趣在于航运安全、智能交通系统与交通大数据。目前，已发表SCI论文27篇，其中第一作者16篇、ESI高被引2篇；主持国家自科基金面上项目1项、国家重点研发计划子课题1项，获省部级科技二等奖等奖励3项。
Presentation 4:
SPEAKER：Dr. Shanshan Fu, Shanghai Maritime University
TITLE：Risk Management of Arctic Shipping from a perspective of accident analysis
ABSTRACT:
The melting of sea ice in Arctic waters not only increases the development and utilization of the sea routes but also puts forward more requirements for accident prevention and risk management of Arctic shipping. This study uses data mining technologies and methods for temporal and spatial analysis of ship accidents, according to the accident records in the past twenty years. A bivariate probit model is developed for analyzing the effects of ship and accident attributes and identifying the critical risk influencing factors (RIF) in Arctic shipping. Furthermore, a synthesis is developed of risk influencing factors (RIFs) to shipping accidents in the Arctic, based on quantitative risk models of navigational accident scenarios in Arctic shipping.
BIOGRAPHY:
Dr. Shanshan FU is a lecturer at the College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, China. She concluded post-graduate studies (MSc in June 2013 and Ph.D. in January 2017) in the Intelligent Transport System Center, Wuhan University of Technology, China. She is the principal investigator for the project “Risk coupling model and dynamic prediction methods for ship operations in ice-covered Arctic waters (51709168)”, National Natural Science Foundation of China. Her research interests are risk management of ship accidents and formal safety assessment of ship operations in Arctic waters.